President Muhammadu Buhari was just sworn-in for a second tenure to continue governing Africa’s most populous nation which is estimated at about 200million, even though the score card for the first tenure has a poor remark.
- The current statistics shows that the Debt-GDP ratio is currently at 28 percent with the figures for the debts as released by the Debt Management Office standing at N24.387 trillion and Buhari still wants to borrow another $1 billion from the Chinese-Exim bank to finance the Gurara 2 Hydro-Power project.
- Under his administration, Nigeria’s stock index is down 0.4% year-to-date while emerging markets are up 2.3% and the MSCI Frontier Markets 100 is up 10.2%, which reflects investor’s sentiments on the state of the country’s economy, a very negative one at that.
- Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) back in 2013 inflows totaled $5.6 billion, most of it in the telecom and energy sectors.In 2018 alone, FDI flattened to $2 billion while Equity investment between 2013 and 2018 has fallen from around $2.9 billion in 2013 to just $139 million in 2018.
- The subsidy payment under his administration continues to increase at an alarming rate and an analysis by BudgIT showed that Nigeria has spent over N10 trillion on fuel subsidy between 2006 – 2018 and the 2019 budget still set aside N305 billion for subsidy payment to NNPC.
IMF, amongst other bodies has called for a total removal of the subsidy but successive governments, including that of Buhari still continues to indulge it, afraid of the political fallout while citizens suffers as the money pumped into it could still be used for more developmental projects.
- Less than a years after Buhari came into office, Nigeria’s economy went into recession with a 1.8% GDP growth but came out of it with 0.8% GDP growth.
Going further, the GDP growth climbed to 2.38, but the recent data shows that it has plummeted to 2.01, which shows that we are still not faring better after the recession because population continues to increase at an alarming rate.
- As the population continues to increase, NBS recent data shows that employment in the country is over 23 percent as it increased over 15 consecutive quarters, while more than 40 percent of young people are either unemployed or underemployed.
- In light of all the aforesaid, the IMF revealed that average incomes have been falling for four years and the prediction is that it will not rise for at least another six years and the exchange rate is still unstable even with the CBN funding FOREX.
All these spells doom for the ordinary citizen even in the face of social investment programmes like the Trader Moni, N-Power, put in place by Buhari’s administration because over 94 million Nigerians live on less than $1.90 a day, which continues to reduce in the face of economic hardship or inability of states to pay salaries.
And it could get harder for Nigerians in Buhari’s second tenure, if a state of emergency is not declared in sectors like education, health, investment and youth development because the country has already overtaken India in Poorest Countries Ranking.
The proverbial shit could hit the fan, if the president does not (i) desist from borrowing, (ii) caution states from borrowing, (iii) take proactive actions on total removal of subsidy and (iv) give directive to the CBN to make sure that monetary policies within the country favours the naira, so that its purchasing power can be restored or we will make the predictions of the World Data Lab that Nigerians will be home to a quarter of very poor people by 2030, ring true.
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